Friday, September 24, 2010

Lib Dems Crash In Dronfield

The Lib Dems suffered a crushing defeat in yesterday's District Council By-election in the Gosforth Valley Ward of the North East Derbyshire District Council.

In this three seater in 2007 the average results of the Political Parties were Lib Dems 51.1%, Tories 30.0% and Labour 18.9%.

The By-election was a contest for a single seat. The Liberal Vote fell dramatically to 31.3%, the Tories took 37.1% and Labour moved into second place with 31.6%.

The Liberal percentage vote fell by 19.8% with 7.1% of these going to the Tories and 12.7% to Labour. The Liberal swing to Labour was almost twice as strong as the swing to the Tories.

Although the turnout dropped substantially from 36% in 2007 to 26%, the Labour vote actually increased from a previous average of 315 to 354. It was its best ever result in the ward.

Whilst Labour only moved into 2nd place by 4 votes, it overtook the Lib Dems who had had an average lead over them of no less than 563 in 2007.

If the By-election had been fought under the Alternative Vote, then the Lib Dems would have been eliminated and their second choices redistributed between Labour and the Tories. Labour would have needed just 207 of the potential 350 transferred votes to ensure victory. That is under 3 in 5 of the transfers.

1 comment:

  1. Harry it is also worth pointing out that this was an election where all 3 parties worked very hard. Both the Tories and the Lib Dems managed to deliver 3 leaflets each to every house. But Dronfield Labour followed the advice given by Toby Perkins MP at our last Blather meeting. I think that is the reason the number of Labour votes increased when both Tory and Lib Dem votes dropped.