Brexit : Parliamentary Arithmetic and Constitutional Conundrums

Brexit : Parliamentary Arithmetic and Constitutional Conundrums

 

                                        Parliamentary Arithmetic on Brexit.

                            Elected MPs                       Those With Normal Voting Rights

Conservatives          311 less a Deputy Speaker................................... = 310

Labour                     247 less 2 Deputy Speakers................................. = 245

SNP                           35........................................................................ =  35   
Independents             15 only one elected as such. Three expelled or

                                        suspended by Labour.................................... =  15

Lib Dems                   14  include a former Labour and Conservative.. =  14

DUP                           10 ....................................................................... = 10

Sinn Fein                     7 refuse to take their seats................................. =  0

Independent Group 

for Change                  5  four ex-Labour one 1 ex-Con. .......................  =  5

Plaid Cymru                4 ......................................................................... =  4

Greens                        1 ......................................................................... =  1

Speaker                      1  only uses a casting vote ................................. =  0

Totals                     650                                                                              639 
 

With the DUP, the Govenment have a maximum of 320 and the opposition 319.

When it comes to having any future votes in the Commons on how to leave the European Union, it is difficult to see how a majority vote can be carried. Other than a possible vote of no-confidence in the Government. For there are blocks of MPs in at least four different camps, which make it almost impossible to cobble together a simple majority on any position.

1. There are those who wish to leave the European Union without any agreement. Their main numbers are within the Conservative Party as expressed via the European Research Group which at one time was discovered to have at least 55 members. But there are many others who also adopt its approach, at least as a fall-back. Boris Johnson's current tactics aid their stance.
2. The SNP, the Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru, the Green MP, the Independent Group for Change, Independents and sections of the Labour Party generally favour a fresh referendum. Most hoping that it will then determine that we will remain in the EU. Others claiming that any plan to leave the EU should require such an endorsement via a Referendum.
3. Then there are those who still look for a departure deal with the EU , even if time for this is running out - unless we can again get them to further postpone the date for our departure. Yet even here the hoped for options differ. There is still the existing EU deal with Teresa May, especially if progress could be made to overcome its problems concerning the Northern Ireland backstop.
4. Then there is even the claim that a fresh deal could be pursued on say our operating a Customs Union with the EU.

But there is no conceivable majority in parliament for any of these or any related options. Unless, perhaps, a procedure was adopted to engage in an exhaustive ballot to decide which road to pursue. But to give parliament time, that would still require Boris Johnson to get the EU to seek to get an extension for our proposed date of departure. This is now most unlikely.

                                         Constitutional Conundrums

With Boris now arranging to end the parliamentary session and have a fresh Queen's Speech just a few weeks before we are due to embark on the process of leaving the EU, we are driven back to the significance of the very decision which initially set this ball rolling.

After the result of the referendum on 23 June 2016 the Commons first voted on 1^st February 2017 to implement the UK's use of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty in order to start the procedure for us leaving the EU. With Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader and with his support, the initial vote on this proposal was carried by 498 to 114. There were 47 Labour MPs who rebelled on the issue. The only Tory rebel (plus five who abstained) being Ken Clarke. The date for our departure from the EU was then invoked by Teresa May on 29 March 2017 in order it provided for our leaving by 12 April 2019. When her proposals for that departure failed to get parliamentary approval, she made arrangements  with the EU to put the final date for our departure back to 31st October, which is just three parliamentary weeks after the coming Queen's Speech. Unless in the limited time available parliament now decides to get the EU again to push back the final date for our departure.

An alternative tactic to that of Boris's on Brexit does not have much breathing space. Will (for instance) Jeremy's cross party talks lead to such a possibility in the short time (and limited parliamentary opportunities) which are available before the end of October ? Time is running out fast for options other than leaving without a deal in just over 2 months time. Then could a fresh general election emerge to lead on to any later change of direction? Or would it just produce a new parliament which merely repeated the current divisions on the issue ? Then what if Boris wins the election comfortably? The latest YouGov Poll with its field work done over the last two days gives Conservatives 34%, Labour 22%, Lib Dem 17%, Brexit Party 13%, Greens 8%.

Click here for a parliamentary link which covers the constitutional complexities.