Parliamentary Arithmetic on
Brexit.
Elected
MPs Those With Normal Voting Rights
Conservatives
311 less a Deputy Speaker................................... = 310
Labour
247 less 2 Deputy Speakers................................. = 245
SNP
35........................................................................ = 35
Independents
15 only one elected as such. Three
expelled or
suspended by Labour.................................... = 15
Lib
Dems 14 include a former Labour and
Conservative.. = 14
DUP
10 ....................................................................... = 10
Sinn
Fein 7 refuse to take their seats................................. = 0
Independent
Group
for
Change 5 four ex-Labour one 1 ex-Con. ....................... = 5
Plaid
Cymru 4 ......................................................................... = 4
Greens
1 ......................................................................... = 1
Speaker 1 only uses a casting vote ................................. = 0
Totals
650
639
With the
DUP, the Govenment have a maximum
of 320 and the opposition 319.
When
it comes to having any future votes in the Commons on how to leave the European Union, it is difficult to see how a
majority vote can be carried. Other than a possible vote of
no-confidence in the Government. For there are blocks of MPs in at
least four different camps, which make it almost impossible to cobble
together a simple majority on any position.
There
are those who wish to leave the European Union without any
agreement. Their main numbers are within the Conservative Party as
expressed via the European Research Group which at one time was
discovered to have at least 55 members. But there are many others
who also adopt its approach, at least as a fall-back. Boris Johnson's
current tactics aid their stance.
The
SNP, the Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru, the Green MP, the Independent Group
for Change, Independents and sections of the Labour Party generally
favour a fresh referendum. Most hoping that it will then determine
that we will remain in the EU. Others claiming that any plan to
leave the EU should require such an endorsement via a Referendum.
Then
there are those who still look for a departure deal with the EU ,
even if time for this is running out - unless we can again get them
to further postpone the date for our departure. Yet even here the
hoped for options differ. There is still the existing EU deal with
Teresa May, especially if progress could be made to overcome its
problems concerning the Northern Ireland backstop.
Then
there is even the claim that a fresh deal could be pursued on say
our operating a Customs Union with the EU.
But
there is no conceivable majority in parliament for any of these or
any related options. Unless, perhaps, a procedure was adopted to
engage in an exhaustive ballot to decide which road to pursue. But
to give parliament time, that would still require Boris Johnson to
get the EU to seek to get an extension for our proposed date of
departure. This is now most unlikely.
Constitutional
Conundrums
With
Boris now arranging to end the parliamentary session and have a fresh
Queen's Speech just a few weeks before we are due to embark on the
process of leaving the EU, we are driven back to the significance of
the very decision which initially set this ball rolling.
After
the result of the referendum on 23 June 2016 the Commons first voted
on 1st February 2017 to implement the UK's use of Article
50 of the Lisbon Treaty in order to start the procedure for us
leaving the EU. With Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader and with his
support, the initial vote on this proposal was carried by 498 to 114.
There were 47 Labour MPs who rebelled on the issue. The only Tory
rebel (plus five who abstained) being Ken Clarke. The date for our
departure from the EU was then invoked by Teresa May on 29 March 2017
in order it provided for our leaving by 12 April 2019.
When her proposals for that departure failed to get parliamentary
approval, she made arrangements with the EU to put the final
date for our departure back to 31st October, which is just three
parliamentary weeks after the coming Queen's Speech. Unless in the
limited time available parliament now decides to get the EU again to push
back the final date for our departure.
An
alternative tactic to that of Boris's on Brexit does not have much
breathing space. Will (for instance) Jeremy's cross party talks lead
to such a possibility in the short time (and limited parliamentary
opportunities) which are available before the end of October ? Time
is running out fast for options other than leaving without a deal in
just over 2 months time. Then could a fresh general election emerge
to lead on to any later change of direction? Or would it just produce
a new parliament which merely repeated the current divisions on the
issue ? Then what if Boris wins the election comfortably? The latest YouGov Poll
with its field work done over the last two days gives Conservatives
34%, Labour 22%, Lib Dem 17%, Brexit Party 13%, Greens 8%.
Click here for a parliamentary link which covers the constitutional complexities.
